Monday, April 25, 2016

Pro Tour Player Club Thoughts



I just got back from Barcelona where I made Top 8 in an amazing tournament, but like everyone else I have no interest in talking about the Pro Tour because of the bombshell Wizards dropped on us Sunday. My apologies to Steve Rubin – he seemed like a really nice guy, and had the decency to shuffle and sideboard quickly for game 3 of our match, even when a draw was what he needed for top 8.  He didn’t know I was going to draw with him anyways, but just wanted to see his deck post sideboard with Infinite Obliteration first. It’s a shame to have his first victory overshadowed by this announcement.
                There are a lot of problems with Wizards’ announcement about changes to the prize money payouts. First, there’s the timing of the changes to next years’ Platinum benefits ¾ of the way through the season. Second, there’s the wisdom of the changes for the future. Third, there’s the veracity of the claims in the post. And fourth, there’s what’s unsaid – namely the lack of increase in prize money over more than a decade.
                Of all the issues with these changes, only the revocation of platinum benefits for 2016-2017 can be labeled unethical and morally wrong. I’ve interacted with Helene for a great many years and believe she cares deeply about the pro magic community, so I can only assume one of two things. Either the decision was not hers to make and she is taking the fall, or she did not realize the ethical issues with the change. While I think the changes are ill advised, the beginning of a season is the time to make these changes. A great number of people have put in a lot of effort and expense to achieve the platinum benefits listed on WoTC’s website. Revoking those benefits after 75% of the season is done is unconscionable. Promises were made to players and they must be kept.
                In terms of long term strategy, cannibalizing platinum benefits in the interests of having a flashier top prize for one tournament is ill advised and damaging to the game. Removing the hall of fame benefits I’m fine with, but the platinum players are the grinders who make up the core of the personalities and brands Wizards wants to promote with the Pro Tour. Taking all their benefits and putting it into one top heavy payout at the end of the year makes things problematic for the magic “pro.” Magic is already incredibly difficult for the amount of recompense, and already has lots of variance. The last match of a Pro Tour doubles your win, and the difference between 9th in the swiss and making the top 8 is enormous. The platinum benefits gave players at least a little bit of a cushion against those swings. Not a single person I know wants all of that on the line in a single end of the year tournament, and I know the people who are most likely to win that tournament. Even if the total money were the same, the increased variance isn’t good for anyone.
                However the prize money is dropping significantly despite Wizards’ claims to the contrary. I really don’t understand this – they know Magic players are bright and can do basic math. Did they just expect no one to do the simple math? In a group where many people simulate the probabilities of hitting land drops with 24 vs 25 lands? Helene offered on twitter to show the math adds up, so it’s possible I’m missing something, but as of yet she has not volunteered that math. For simplicity I’m assuming the 2016 attendance numbers hold for 2017 – one could argue that the assumption is off by a little, but the net change will just be to reduce the magnitude of the effect slightly. Either way, it’s a significant cut. There are 34 platinum pros this year who will receive 11k less from PTs, that’s $374,000 in total. If we assume 20 play in World Magic Cup Qualifiers and 20 attend the World Magic Cup that’s another $20,000. The announcement also lists no appearance fees for Grand Prix, and while it’s possible that’s an oversight, it seems much more likely that it is not. If each of the 48 Grand Prix average 10 platinum pros receiving $250 each, that’s another $120,000 annually. Now we add on the Hall of Fame reduction – let’s say that only 20 players attend each pro tour on average and now receive $1500 annually instead of $6000. That’s another $90,000, a bit more if some of them make the World Magic Cup. Sum up all the numbers and it’s a net cut of $604,000.
                On the other side of the ledger are the increases to the Worlds payout. The pros who achieve platinum this season will instead get a $100,000 increase to the Worlds Payout, should they be lucky enough to qualify. This is a net reduction of $500,000 or the prize money (excepting appearance fees) of approximately two Pro Tours. The following years, assuming WoTC doesn’t change things again, the Worlds payout increases another $250k, making the net reduction $250,000 from that point forward, or the payout of one Pro Tour. Then they say “The appearance fees … were meant to assist in maintaining the professional Magic player’s lifestyle… we believe that the program is not succeeding at this goal, and have made the decision to decrease appearance fees.” So they’re saying that the program was not enough to maintain the Pro Player lifestyle, and as a result they’re cutting it? This is impressive doublespeak. Sometimes it feels like they have a low opinion of us when they write these things.
                And of course the final, biggest problem is that the Pro Tour hasn’t seen an increase in prize payouts in a very long time. In the last decade Magic revenue is up by at least 300%, and probably more. It’s impossible to know for sure since their earnings reports don’t break things down by game, but I’ve heard enough from enough reliable sources that I think 300% is a reliable low end estimate. Meanwhile, the prize money has increased little if at all. In 2006 a Pro Tour paid out $240k, now it pays $250k. There were also benefits similar to platinum going back even further. In 2001, when Ben Rubin smashed me in the finals of the Masters Chicago, the prize was $150k/tournament on top of the Pro Tour payout – so even more than the platinum benefits. Over a decade and the prize money has barely budged. This sort of short termism has plagued Magic throughout the years, most notably in starving MTGO of resources. I’ve written enough here, but Matt Sperling dives into this (and more) in his post here, http://sperlinggrove.blogspot.com/2016/04/platinum-pro-club-changes-corporate.html, which you all should read.

                In a perfect world Wizards would roll back the appearance fee changes (except for the Hall of Fame, we don’t need it) and consider maybe increasing the prize money some time. Instead, our likely best case scenario is pushing back the platinum changes one year and still having a significant reduction. The players and fan base all love Magic, it’s a part of all our lives. Magic players are one of the most loyal consumers of any product out there, and one of the most profitable. It’s a shame to see WoTC treat them with such little respect, and I doubt it will be a good long term decision for their bottom line either.

Update:
Based on the comments below and on twitter, it appears the GP appearance fee will remain $250, or the same as Pro Tours. So the reduction in prize money would be 384k followed by 134k, rather than the numbers I have above. Thanks for the help.

Update #2: The Pro Tour was in Madrid, not Barcelona :)

69 comments:

  1. The money should go into GP's. Get rid of the 3 byes, 2 byes max and increase the pay out for 6-7 'super GP', where anyone can enter, be on equal footing and win BIG money. Appearance fee reneg. is immoral and unethical, we can all agree to that. Wotc should pay you guys out one more year. THEN, kill all appearance fees, funnel all the money into GP prizes/PT. Not Worlds. Good article. Remember when 'gravy train' meant an extra PT invite?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Why kill appearance fees for prizes in the first place? Magic is a game with incredible variance; fees are a much better way to keep the Magic pro category even feasible.

      Delete
  2. I think GP appearance money is still there, the article says:

    Platinum pros will receive an appearance fee of $250 for competing at Pro Tours (previously $3,000), an appearance fee of $250 for competing at the World Magic Cup (previously $1,000), and an appearance fee of $250 for competing at a World Magic Cup Qualifier (previously $500).

    All other Pro Tour Players Club benefits remain unchanged.

    I interpreted that as the GP appearance money remains unchanged.

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    Replies
    1. Thank you. I believe you are correct and have added an update at the end of the article to reflect that.

      Delete
  3. Agree on most all points Jon and appreciate your direct approach in addressing these concerns.

    I do feel that the removal of the HoF perks are negligible to most HoF'ers that attend PT's with any regularity.

    I also feel that it is an ethical failure to cut the Platinum benefits 'mid-stream'. If WotC is dead set on making this change to the Platinum players, I feel it cannot begin until the end of the following season.

    Additionally, if WotC does proceed with a future cut of the Platinum fees, this money should be used to increase payouts for Grand Prix's; where the majority of the tournament magic players have access to participate, instead of the top of the top of the top World Championship payout that they have chosen instead.

    Unfortunately, I think $600,000 spread across 48 GP's will only result in $12,500 per GP in payout, which is akin to an extra $200 per top 64 player - nice, but not enough to make it feel like it's a worthy exchange for these Platinum and HoF fees being removed.

    Instead, I would propose having 12 GP's per year be deemed "Super Grand Prix", events which would have an additional $50,000 added to their prize pool. These 12 events could be scheduled to occur once per month through the year, and can be easily broken into a fair share of North America, Europe, Asian, and some of the other smaller regions with GP's scheduled once a year or so.

    An additional $50,000 payout at a GP would represent a substantial jump in payout to what would very likely be 3,000+ person sized mega Grand Prix events. Whether that means upping the top 64 in prizes or extending prized down to the top 128 or even 256 players is a decision that can be debated on both sides. Personally, I think payouts running deeper is a better way to increase GP attendance and increase MTG's popularity. I feel that it makes attending such an enormous event a break even or better experience for a larger percentage of the field and that is better for the game in general.

    Thank you for your thoughts, and for taking the time to read mine.

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  4. Jon, I for one want to see more of my money go to support a robust pantheon of pros that provide the inspirational motivation to pursue the game seriously. We do have a good estimate on MTG revenues, btw. According to Bloomberg, it was about $329M in 2014. Article link here: https://www.google.ca/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwj2_vDwm6rMAhWMvIMKHQiJBB8QjhwIBQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Ffeatures%2F2015-disney-princess-hasbro%2F&psig=AFQjCNECP26Di2ZrgWfd5lGtgYwjSeUs1A&ust=1461688433665203

    Side note: Congrats on your Top 8, btw. Great to see you abusing Seasons Past.

    ReplyDelete
  5. As someone who casually plays magic I am equally upset with these changes. I treat magic like someone else might treat football. It is a 'sport' that I follow and at the same time play. I don't tune in to watch football against unknown teams just because it's football. Again is just the same with magic.

    I was away for friday/saturday so watched all the coverage on twitch VoD. As a result I was able to skip past anything that I didn't care about. That included coverage of players I don't know. Sure maybe someone is 10-0 and deserves to be featured but in my own selfish way I don't care. Provided they're up at the top end I want to be watching the LSV's, Jon's etc. If these changes are going to reduce the number of pros playing it will simply reduce how much I watch magic and as a result how much I'll spend buying decks I saw the guys I like playing.

    I'm pretty sure wizards are not stupid. They must know their big name players have pulling power. When I knew about the T8 lineup I was drooling over the prospect of LSV Finkel final... then they both went out right away I just found myself skipping through most the remaining coverage and only half paying attention to the final.

    ReplyDelete
  6. MTG pros should defect to Blizzard, Stream Hearthstone, and make 6 figures?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hearthstone is not nearly as good of a game as Magic is to most pros. That's why they have stuck with playing Magic and suffering with MTGO. I have a feeling that Hasbro are the ones responsible for this endeavor and Wizards had no say in it. I hope they would have battled as hard as they could to prevent it, though.

      Delete
  7. I think an end goal of the change is to simply reduce the number of platinum pros. The 2017 Worlds payout has $12,000 for last place which offsets the loss of PT appearance fees and the $86,000 net increase in prize pool gives an average equity per player of $3500 to offset other losses in the changes. I agree with everything you said, but I think one thing that has been getting overlooked in most discussions is that WotC is putting a hard cap of 24 on the number of platinum pros by shifting the platinum benefits to Worlds starting in 2017. I am not agreeing with WotC I am just trying to point out what I believe their intent to be.

    Net Increase = 2017 prize pool - reduction in PT appearance fees - 2015 prize pool
    86,000= 500,000 - (24*11,000) - 150,000

    ReplyDelete
  8. One question that nags at me is this:

    Is providing a career in Magic for a select group of Pros an effective way for Wizards to sell their product?

    As someone with numerous friends on the PT, I would like to believe so, yet I have a nagging suspicion that these are not actually funds well spent. With no offense meant to anyone in particular, I doubt the majority of Magic players could pick most of the Platinum Pros out of a lineup.

    I think the Pro Tour and organized play are a net good for the game and *do* help drive sales of product, but I think the appearance fees would be better spent in raising tournament prizes across the board (including GPs, which are in desperate need of a further increase). Raising the reward for finishing highly at Magic tournaments will help off-set the loss of appearance fees, and will continuously reward performance (as opposed to simply showing up).

    But while I think higher tournament payouts are a good idea, I would disagree with the tack that WotC has taken in this case. Payouts should be flattened, not made more top-heavy. A higher first prize will indeed generate more publicity, but will also lead to a ton of variance. Flattening the payouts gives a better chance that a consistently successful Magic player such as Owen Turtenwald can make a passable living at this game without being paid outside of the tournament structure.

    ReplyDelete
  9. I can almost guarantee MTG revenue went up more than 300%, since Hasbro's own investor materials claim revenue increases in that range in just four years. I mentioned it in my rant about this BS. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMz8pLt67x0 Source: imgur.com/a/nEqiw. It's atrocious that they can brag about gaining players/revenue year over year and keep slashing benefits.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Great stuff. One tweak to the calculations would be expected number of Plat Pros in following years. Wizards recently upped the points needed for Platinum, which likely reduces the number of future Platinums.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So, "This shouldn't count as a prize reduction since they were already planning to reduce the payouts?" :) I get your point, but either way it's still a reduction.

      Delete
  11. Congratulations on your astounding 16th Pro Tour top 8. Your skill is awe-inspiring and transcendent.

    It is not accurate that you made Top 8 in Barcelona 2016, however. I'm sure Fabrizio Anteri would have not have been happy seeing you across the draft table if you did.

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  12. I have a feeling that Hasbro are the ones responsible for this endeavor and Wizards had no say in it. I hope they would have battled as hard as they could to prevent it, though.

    ReplyDelete
  13. I know this is just speculation, but do you think the new CEO could be behind these new changes. With new leadership usually comes drastic changes that don't make sense. Just an idea. Great article Mr. Finkle.

    ReplyDelete
  14. You do know that 99% of players do not play in tournaments, follow the competitive scene, or even know magic has pro players.
    "Either the decision was not hers to make and she is taking the fall, or she did not realize the ethical issues with the change."
    What kind of BS statement is that?!?! Helene is not taking a fall and for sure MBAs of a multi-billion dollar, global company know of all the angles.
    WotC shouldn't be responsible for your income or lifestyle.

    ReplyDelete
  15. There actually cutting the appearance fee by 83.3%

    I signed the petition.

    Keep it up magic community we make the community we can also end it. They probable cut it because wotc is going to lose the lawsuit from magic judges being employees.

    ReplyDelete
  16. I'm not sure why Grand Prix and Pro Tour tournaments don't pay (outside the top 8) to Swiss record. It discourages late draws, and for the Grand Prix that most dedicated players, it means prizes automatically scale with attendance. It's relatively easy for tournament organizers to predict as well.

    Not a fan of the lower appearance fees either, even if I will never come close to being eligible for them.

    ReplyDelete
  17. One simple solution that should be recognized by WotC is the elegant and clever prize distribution that SCG has implemented which states that whatever 64th place standing is, pays prize money down to the same record. It is immensely annoying to go X-4 say at a GP and still come in 94th place simply based on your tiebreakers which is randomly determined by your opponents.

    I would even consider a token recompense of the tournament entry fee rather than the $250 for 64th place as a step forward.

    On a side note, this whole affair reeks of their previous changes last year where as a grinder I had earned 3 byes via Planeswalkers points to have them reverse this to a non-Gold player not being able to earn more than 2 byes when those "byes" had been rightly earned via extensive time, money (a very real and considerable amount) and effort on my part and the very least of which should have been done was to "grandfather" those byes in for the next season

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  18. yikes holy moly they done did it this time

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  19. Pros - you are doomed anyway. Situation came too far and now you have only one option - go on strike! :-)

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  20. I agree on everything jon but I believe several hall of famers like olle rade who rely on the fee to make it to every pro tour would disagree since they are unable to compete for the flight on rptqs or mtgo :/

    ReplyDelete
  21. Running the numbers myself I come to this:
    - on average 24 HOF members played in the last three PTs. Three of them played in the WMC --> Cut of $111k annually (not accounting for Watanabe who is for sure getting in this year)

    - 19 players have already locked Platinum. 9 are within 5 extra points (already counting 3 from Sydney). 13 more are withing 10 extra points. 21 are within 15 extra points. Assuming a 100% (for those who still need 5),50% (need 10) and 25% (need 15) conversion rate this brings us to 38 Platinum players next year.
    --> Cut at PTs: 38 * 2750 * 4 = $418k
    --> Cut at WMC (assuming 20 will play): 20 * 750 = $15k
    --> Cut at WMCQ (assuming 20 will play in each round) = 20 * 250 * 3 = $15k
    --> Total cut = $448k

    --> Net gain for WotC for 2015-2016 season due to this change = $111k + $448k - $100k = $459k
    --> Net gain for WotC for 2016-2017 season due to this change = $111k + $448k - $350k = $209k

    Upping the prize money of the World Champs by $550k (instead of $100k, or $250k) and inviting all the Platinums would be a possible solution.

    ReplyDelete
  22. I have heard about problems with Wizards’ announcement and changes to the prize money payouts. Frankly speaking, I thought about this . Such situation are not easy, but they can find a compromise.

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